Best Case Electoral College Scenario for Gary Johnson & The Libertarian Party

We have run stories in the past about the potential electoral success for Gary Johnson which includes an electoral college number as high as 161 electoral votes. But what is the best case scenario for the former Governor of New Mexico?

There is the high potential for Johnson to win a state or two and what does that mean for the American people as we get past November 8th?

According to our map (even though we think some of the red states will actually be blue which would put Clinton over the top in terms of the electoral count) we think that Gary Johnson has the real potential to capture at least 26 electoral votes.


If this scenario plays out for Governor Johnson then the election will be thrown into the House of Representatives.

Disclaimer: There will still be people that will comment on this story saying that Hillary will win according to our map, but apparently they don’t actually read the story or know anything about government. If no candidate  achieves a majority of the electoral votes, and in this case, the majority is 270 then the election is decided by the House of Representatives.

The Johnson campaign has hinged one of their strategies on having the election go into the House. If it can make it there they feel they have a large chance of coming out with a victory. The Congress is not too keen on either Clinton or Trump and might defer to an experienced Governor as the voice of reason.

Even if the election doesn’t get thrown to the House, or Johnson doesn’t win there, it is still big news for the Libertarian Party. This scenario puts them on the map as a major party and the ability to shape the policy direction of this country for years to come.

5 replies »

  1. . . . except Trump is not going to win Pennsylvania . . . or Florida. I hope Johnson wins the state you indicate, but HIllary will still win – and that’s a better scenario than Trump winning!

    Liked by 1 person

  2. I can just see the butthurt Trump supporters blaming his loss on Johnson. Despite the fact that the data shows him drawing more support from Clinton’s camp than from Trump’s. Try fielding a better candidate instead of crying about people choosing what they see as a better alternative!


  3. I follow the projections on 538, and they tend to have Montana as one of Gary’s top states. In fact, they project it to be in his top three (along with New Mexico and Alaska. Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming are in a second tier, but not far behind.

    As far as the rest of the map is concerned, I think Trump has a better chance of winning Ohio than Pennsylvania. If those two states were flipped, Hillary would have 271 and the win. On the other hand, polling out of Iowa is looking tight, and might plausibly flip to Trump. Reverse Ohio and PA, flip Iowa, and flip Montana to Gary, and you get Hillary 265, Trump 244, Gary 29

    Liked by 1 person

  4. All of the states from OR and WA to IA and WI are plausible, and Bill Weld should be working on VT, NH, and Maine. The dream only comes true if Johnson and Weld make the debates and do their absolute best in all of them.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s